Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.449753 0.518955 0.593811 0.680618 0.778322 0.884698 1.009082
2025-06-01 0.356855 0.449273 0.556791 0.690417 0.851279 1.037890 1.269899
2025-06-08 0.283552 0.388155 0.518558 0.691425 0.912709 1.184449 1.541096
2025-06-15 0.239188 0.354780 0.508634 0.725211 1.018468 1.397514 1.919468
2025-06-22 0.185799 0.299721 0.461975 0.704746 1.052448 1.525085 2.206966
2025-06-29 0.147520 0.258606 0.427663 0.695903 1.101032 1.678205 2.547385
2025-07-06 0.116173 0.221534 0.392860 0.680838 1.138699 1.820868 2.890516
2025-07-13 0.098432 0.202965 0.383600 0.703462 1.235792 2.060720 3.400421
2025-07-20 0.080669 0.180322 0.363546 0.705421 1.300733 2.259458 3.870307
2025-07-27 0.068307 0.164967 0.353434 0.722678 1.392987 2.510945 4.447774
2025-08-03 0.058192 0.151667 0.344652 0.740878 1.489135 2.778749 5.077536
2025-08-10 0.045800 0.130023 0.315271 0.715565 1.504348 2.912232 5.498552
2025-08-17 0.034768 0.108557 0.282532 0.679809 1.498928 3.015857 5.891459
2025-08-24 0.028087 0.095836 0.266100 0.674812 1.552277 3.230996 6.502020
2025-08-31 0.022406 0.083807 0.248499 0.664175 1.593107 3.427978 7.100317
2025-09-07 0.019332 0.078375 0.245911 0.687247 1.707417 3.776970 8.011980
2025-09-14 0.014866 0.066617 0.223945 0.660364 1.710689 3.909683 8.528399
2025-09-21 0.011757 0.058063 0.208417 0.646248 1.740184 4.097888 9.169196
2025-09-28 0.009172 0.050135 0.192430 0.627646 1.756501 4.260323 9.773351
2025-10-05 0.007893 0.046893 0.189968 0.645055 1.860827 4.618729 10.802704
2025-10-12 0.006469 0.042207 0.181496 0.643949 1.919579 4.884077 11.661939
2025-10-19 0.005526 0.039288 0.178239 0.657511 2.017346 5.245083 12.750834
2025-10-26 0.004744 0.036725 0.175543 0.672336 2.120472 5.627674 13.915095